As it stands Cadel Evans is a minute and fifty three seconds behind Alberto Contado with the Tour de France due to finish on Sunday. It would seem only the time trial in Cognac will give the opportunity for Cadel to make up the time (though the Tour has a way of making people who make predictions look like fools).
The Maths
The Prologue
Contador was 1 second ahead of Evans in the Prologue. It’s hard to know what this means as serious GC contenders tend to try and stay out of trouble on the Prologue since it doesn’t contribute to the times of the Tour proper (indeed, next years Tour de France 2008 won’t even have a prologue).
Stage 13: Unlucky for some
The Albi time trial is probably the best indication of how Contador and Evans compare as timetrialists. Cadel came second first and was 1:04 ahead of Contador. The course was about the same length but was hillier than many time trials and the wet may have favoured Contador. Watching the riders prepare for the time trial we were all struck by how relaxed Evans was joking with some of the Australians (apparently we wanted to know how V8 results!). Contador wasn’t so approachable and had his earphones on and seemed very focused.
History
The 1989 tour was in a similar tight balance. Greg LeMond went into the final time trial 50 seconds down on Laurent Fignon but went 58 seconds faster in the time trial to gain the yellow jersey. It would be nice to see a real battle on the Champs-Élysées instead of Champaign drinking and the sprinters fighting it out.
So, my prediction? I think the accepted thinking is that Cadel Evans is just a little too far back. But I think Cadel is in really great form and is in the right frame of mind to put in the performance of his career, whereas there is a lot of pressure on Contador and pressure in time trials often results in mistakes and crashes…
At the end of the Stage 15 where Contador and Rassmussen battled it out on the Col de Peyresourde and Contador took 1:11 from Evans, I was lucky enough to be at the finish with BikeStyle Tours. Cadel has the misfortune to be stuck in a car in traffic and was nice enough to have a chat with me. Not being a journalist I didn’t ask the cutting questions, I just wished him luck and asked how he felt the stage went. His reply was interesting he said it was very hard and he was tired but he seemed to be very relaxed and I think he knew he was always going to lose time in the mountains to the super human climbers like Contador and Rassmussen but he knew perhaps his time would come in the time trial in Cognac. Time will tell. I wish I was there with the BikeStyle tour to cheer him on again.
To break up the monotony of the flat plain comes a hors category climb: Col de Pailhères (2001m). The Col de Pailhères as been the seen of some epic battles, not least between Ullrich, Basso and Armstrong in 2005. The climb the way we’ll do it is 10.6 km long and has a 
